Predicting population responses to environmental change: the importance of considering informed dispersal strategies in spatially structured population models

摘要: Aim Because of its complexity, dispersal has often been simplified when implemented in models aiming at understanding and predicting population dynamics persistence a context environmental change. In particular, informed dispersal, that is the use personal social information to decide whether leave natal or current breeding site where settle, seldom considered. Informed could nevertheless be critical for dynamics, structure persistence, as it help populations track Here, we develop simulation model examine consequences four strategies (informed, semi-informed, fixed random philopatry) on spatially structured under different scenarios. Methods We built parameterized metapopulation dynamic using long-lived colonial seabird species an example, black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, set distinct patches. Various scenarios variability multiple factors potentially driving decisions (local habitat quality, individual conspecific success, use) were considered explore their respective effects. Results Environmental change strongly influenced structure. variable environments, semi-informed maintained long term, whereas philopatry led extinction. Contrasted also arose: ecological traps, source-sink drove extinction–recolonization dynamics. Main conclusions This study demonstrates importance including populations. It serves highlight urgent need collect more empirical data processes properly parameterize such models.