A framework for evaluating regional hydrologic sensitivity to climate change using archetypal watershed modeling

摘要: Abstract. The current study focuses on the development of a regional framework to evaluate hydrologic and sediment sensitivity, at various stages urban development, due predicted future climate variability. We develop archetypal watersheds, which are representations observed physiographic features (i.e., geomorphology, land cover patterns, etc.) with synthetic basin size reach network. Each three archetypes (urban, vegetated mixed urban/vegetated covers) simulates satisfactory behavior compared historical observations prior sensitivity analysis. Climate scenarios considered range increasing temperatures, as estimated by IPCC, precipitation variability based expectations. Archetypal watersheds modeled using Environmental Protection Agency's Hydrologic Simulation Program–Fortran model (EPA HSPF) relative changes streamflow flux evaluated. Results indicate that extent vegetation play key role in watershed change. Temperature increase alone causes decrease annual flow an within only, these effects partially mitigated presence impervious surfaces watersheds. Depending variability, moderately systems can expect largest alteration regimes where high-flow events frequency magnitude. As result, enhanced wash-off suspended sediments from available pervious is expected.