Potential public health impact of RTS,S malaria candidate vaccine in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

摘要: Adding malaria vaccination to existing interventions could help reduce the health burden due malaria. This study modelled potential public impact of RTS,S candidate vaccine in 42 malaria-endemic countries sub-Saharan Africa. An individual-based Markov cohort model was constructed with three categories transmission intensity and six successive immunity levels. The cycle time 5 days. Vaccination assumed risk infection, no other effects. Vaccine efficacy wane exponentially over time. Malaria incidence data were taken from a Phase III trial 18 months follow-up (NCT00866619). calibrated reproduce control arm each category published age distribution data. Individual-level heterogeneity exposure protection accounted for. Parameter uncertainty variability captured by using stochastic transitions. followed birth 10 years without vaccination, or administered at 6, 10 14 weeks 7-and-a-half 9 months. Median 95 % confidence intervals calculated for number clinical cases, severe hospitalizations deaths expected be averted strategy. Univariate sensitivity analysis conducted varying values key input parameters. assuming coverage diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) is estimated avert five million 119,000 98,600 31,000 10-year period. months 75 % DTP3 almost 12.5 250,000 208,000 65,400 countries. indicated that both strategies, parameters largest on mortality estimates waning case-fatality rate. Addition substantially malaria, across