Predictive modelling of Ross River virus notifications in southeastern Australia.

摘要: Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-borne endemic to Australia. The disease, marked by arthritis, myalgia and rash, has complex epidemiology involving several mosquito species wildlife reservoirs. Outbreak years coincide with climatic conditions conducive population growth. We developed regression models for human RRV notifications in the Mildura Local Government Area, Victoria, Australia objective of increasing understanding relationships this system, providing trigger points intervention developing forecast model. Surveillance, climatic, environmental entomological data period July 2000-June 2011 were used model training then forecasts validated 2011-June 2015. Rainfall vapour pressure key factors forecasting notifications. Validation showed they predicted counts an accuracy 81%. Two major vectors (Culex annulirostris Aedes camptorhynchus) important final estimation at proximal lags. findings analysis advance drivers temperate zones will inform public health agencies periods increased risk.