Combined use of a backcast scenario and cross-impact matrix analysis to identify causes of uncertainty in a nascent transport infrastructure project

摘要: Abstract The transport planning decision process is, in theory, underpinned by rational analysis of travel behaviour and application economics but project outcomes do not always follow the results that analysis. Uncertainty is evident at all stages development, as concept emerges it moves through subsequent assessment processes. This research has investigated demonstrated a method quantifies factors contributing to uncertainty, focussing on early lifecycle. used back-cast scenario describe future view project. causal relationships between elements processes led scenarios were discussed structured interviews with stakeholders, each conversation was coded using qualitative techniques identify active process. Causality explored evaluate their influences dependencies those found be simultaneously both highly influential dependent identified driving uncertainty. sensitivity analytical element this its parameters also examined quantify contribution uncertainty establish robust values for these parameters. specific presented here based disused railway where several studies evaluating re-opening have resulted contradictory views mode use achievable benefits. In scenario, rail service re-instated light conjunction new sustainable urban area anchored an existing small village. case, showed local politics leadership most while economic environment, utility proposal, policy contributed uncertainties Although emerged from methodology powerful generic tool create criticalities Therefore, integrated other areas inception planning, much wider than here.