Validating Expert Judgment with the Classical Model

摘要: The classical model derives performance based weights for combining expert judgments on calibration or seed variables from the experts’ field. Since publication of TU Delft judgment database in 2008, various authors have attempted to use this data base cross validation, splitting into training sets and test sets. These attempts are reviewed. Many pitfalls biases validation efforts identified explained. A proposal performing largely work Eggstaff et al. (Reliab Eng Syst Saf 121:72–82, 2014) is formulated illustrated with recent studies.