A data-model intercomparison study of Arctic sea-ice variability

摘要: The dynamic-thermodynamic granular rheology sea-ice model of Tremblay and Mysak is validated against 40 years observed concentration (SIC) data. Subsequently, the mechanisms responsible for producing SIC anomalies in are evaluated by studying coupled variance (using singular value decomposition method, SVD) between simulated ice speed air temperature anomalies. To execute this validation, a 49-year (1949–97) simulation (including 9-year spin-up period) Arctic peripheral cover using daily varying winds monthly mean temperatures produced. In general, variations 1958–97 East Siberian, Chukchi Beaufort seas agreement with observations, while larger discrepancies occur Laptev Kara seas. Moreover, sensitivity to southerly wind creating summer compares well sensitivity; however, model's weaker than observed. over an entire sea not influenced level river runoff. Results from SVD analysis show that main source variability associated variation strength High; Siberian seas, strengthening weakening Transpolar Drift Stream also play important role. Over domain, surface negatively correlated Finally, downward trend total last two decades as record minima Sea reproduced simulation.