Urban and ocean ensembles for improved meteorological and dispersion modelling of the coastal zone

摘要: A high-resolution (1.67 km) ensemble transform (ET)-based meso-scale modelling system utilizing urbanization and sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations is used to examine characteristics of breeze/heat island interactions atmospheric transport dispersion for Tokyo. The displays a positive spread–skill relationship, with the addition urban enabling variance distinguish larger range forecast error variances. Two synoptic regimes are simulated. For pre-frontal period (stronger flow), there less variability among members in strength heat its interaction breeze front. During post-frontal time period, frontal position very sensitive details representation, horizontal variation covering width centre (∼30 displaying significant impacts on development island. Moreover, dosage values tracer released at offshore sites have considerable response small-scale features such as coastally upwelled water, enhanced anthropogenic heating variations building heights. Realistic SST (i.e. warm Tokyo Bay or local upwelling) produce subtle that dramatically impact distributions.