The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent

摘要: Abstract. The Arctic sea ice extent throughout the melt season is closely associated with initial state in winter and spring. Sea leads are important sites of energy fluxes Ocean, which may play an important role in evolution ice. In this study, we examine potential of as a predictor for summer forecast using recently developed daily lead product retrieved from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results show that July pan-Arctic can be predicted area ice leads integrated midwinter to late spring, with prediction error of 0.28 million km 2 that smaller than standard deviation the observed interannual variability. However, predictive skills August and September very low. When sea ice Atlantic central west Siberian sector of the used, it has significantly strong relationship (high predictability) both July August and central Arctic. Thus, realistic representation (e.g., areal coverage) numerical prediction systems might improve skill forecast region.