Imperatives for Modelling and Forecasting Petroleum Products Demand for Nigeria

摘要: Abstract Modelling and forecasting petroleum products demand is a key input for energy use planning policy formulation. This paper employs the Structural Time Series Model to estimate forecast two – gasoline diesel in Nigeria. The STSM can account structural changes an economy through underlying trend. incorporate stochastic rather than deterministic trend which more general therefore argued be appropriate this study. result suggests that Nigeria both price income inelastic fall within range reported literature while trends were generally nature. models under three scenarios; reference case, low high demand. or base scenario describes future based on current economic environment, is, without any specific shock. Under case scenario, reach 45.3 8.03 million litre per day 2030 representing increase of 42% 66% respectively next fifteen years. presents significant challenge towards attaining self-sufficiency meeting Nigeria’s demands local refining. There urgent need government revamp existing refineries encourage private investors build new ones order reduce dependence product imports.