Will climate change reduce the efficacy of protected areas for amphibian conservation in Italy

摘要: Amphibians are an important and imperiled component of biodiversity. In this study we analyze the efficacy Italian reserve network for protecting multiple amphibian species in a climate change scenario, considering both nationally designated areas Natura 2000 sites. Our approach is based on ensemble niche modeling estimate potential range shift under two carbon emission scenarios (A1FI B1) dispersal assumptions. The predicted distributions were used to perform gap irreplaceability analyses. findings show that current incompletely represents diversity its geographic pattern. combination protected sites improves representation amphibians, but conservation targets extent achieved only 40% species. Under future scenarios, become crucial system. Nonetheless, predict decreases many amount suitable falling into reserves, regardless our assumptions about dispersal. We identify some currently unprotected have high scores maintain their importance all considered. recommend designation new reserves these help guarantee long-term conservation.