Policy tree optimization for threshold-based water resources management over multiple timescales

摘要: Abstract Water resources systems face irreducible uncertainty in supply and demand, requiring policies to respond changing conditions on multiple timescales. For both short-term operation long-term adaptation, thresholds or “decision triggers”, where a policy links observed indicators actions, have featured prominently recent studies. There remains need for general method conceptualize threshold-based an easily interpretable structure, corresponding search algorithm design them. Here we propose conceptual computational framework are formulated as binary trees, using simulation-optimization approach. Folsom Reservoir, California serves illustrative case study, define the triggering flood control conservation actions. Candidate operating rules generated across ensemble of climate scenarios, incorporating indicator variables describing longer-term shifts investigate opportunities adaptation. Policy tree optimization open-source software provide generalizable, approach under uncertainty.