Global capacity for emerging infectious disease detection

摘要: The increasing number of emerging infectious disease events that have spread internationally, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the 2009 pandemic A/H1N1, highlight need for improvements in global outbreak surveillance. It is expected proliferation Internet-based reports has resulted greater communication improved surveillance reporting frameworks, especially with revision World Health Organization's (WHO) International Regulations (IHR 2005), which went into force 2007. However, there been no quantitative assessment whether how detection processes actually changed over time. In this study, we analyzed entire WHO public record Disease Outbreak News from 1996 to characterize spatial-temporal trends timeliness discovery about relative estimated start date. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses show overall, by 7.3% [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.073, 95% CI (1.038; 1.110)] per year, 6.2% [HR 1.062, (1.028; 1.096)] year. degree improvement varied geographic region; only region statistically significant (α 0.05) was Western Pacific 1.102 (1.008; 1.205)], whereas Eastern Mediterranean 1.201 (1.066; 1.353)] regions 1.119 (1.025; 1.221)] showed communication. These findings provide historical outbreaks.