Development of nomogram to predict acute urinary retention or surgical intervention, with or without dutasteride therapy, in men with benign prostatic hyperplasia

摘要: Abstract Objectives To develop a prediction model, or nomogram, that would predict the probability man with benign prostatic hyperplasia experience acute urinary retention (AUR) require surgical intervention (SI) within 2 years, without dutasteride therapy. Methods We modeled 4294 men treated in Phase III trials. These were characterized at baseline by number of parameters, including American Urological Association Symptom Index, Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Impact Index questionnaire, prior use selective alpha 1 -blockers, prostate volume, prostate-specific antigen level, and maximal flow rate. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to relate these variables their future AUR/SI years. The nomogram internally validated bootstrapping assess its discrimination calibration. Discrimination quantified as concordance index. Results appeared be accurately calibrated discriminating (concordance index 0.71, P Conclusions constructed for predicting AUR SI years diagnosis. At 24 months follow-up, 7.4% placebo patients 3.7% had experienced and/or SI, representing 50% relative risk reduction absolute reduction. For greatest patient randomized trial, predicted 27%, significantly greater than median placebo-treated patients.