Revisiting the forest transition theory with historical records and geospatial data: A case study from Mississippi (USA)

摘要: Abstract This study examines forest change processes, within the framework of transition theory (FTT), using Mississippi (USA) as a case study. The aim is to evaluate assumption and theoretical basis FTT with quantitative data, propose changes in management policy potential driver for reforestation. We compiled number historical records, geospatial time series mapping products reconstruct last 100 years trajectory. Forest are studied relation society, over range temporal spatial scales. Details dynamics (e.g., rate extent gain loss) were quantified, while considering ecological properties secondary forests. forests intensively managed fragmented forests, regenerated entirely through plantation. quantified (FT) curve indicated that have been nonlinear involved multiple reversals, resulting periods expansion. analysis remote sensing data 30 reveals experienced very frequent disturbance, even during period These patterns not apparent when total area estimates. result illustrates “forest scarcity pathway” (Rudel et al., Global Environmental Change Part A 15(1) (2005) 23–31) worked reverse deforestation trend initial FT period. However, another episode expansion, this cannot be explained by pathway. Rather, suggests an alternative pathway (Mather, International Forestry Review 9(1) (2007) 491–502; Lambin Meyfroidt, Land Use Policy 27 (2010) 108–118), distinct from previous work, highlights importance incentives account recovery. conceptual proposed Mather (Area 24(4) (1992) 367–379) Grainger 27(3) (1995) 242–251) revisited, showing how two views complementary, providing explanation repeated FT. presents empirical evidence understand assumptions new path FT, pathway”.