A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management.

摘要: The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate implement optimal management decisions. Actions control or mitigate effects emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because uncertainty in estimates predicted outcomes tactics. development models that describe best-known information regarding disease system at early stages is an essential step for decision-making. Models can predict potential pathogen, provide guidance assessing likelihood success different proposed actions, quantify surrounding choice decision, highlight critical areas immediate research. We demonstrate how develop be used as a part decision-making framework determine actions given current knowledge.