Present‐day and ice‐covered equilibrium states in a comprehensive climate model
作者： Jochem Marotzke , Michael Botzet
DOI: 10.1029/2006GL028880
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摘要: [1] We show that in a comprehensive climate model both the current and completely ice-covered Earth are stable states under today's total solar irradiance (TSI) CO2 level. We employ Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation ECHAM5/MPI-OM, at relatively high resolution (horizontally T63 atmosphere 1.5 degrees ocean). Setting TSI to near-zero causes transition from realistic present-day state within 15 years; this persists even when re-assumes value. A break-up of complete ice cover occurs with 100 times – but not 10 atmospheric While is near-zero, extremely strong meridional overturning ensues Atlantic Pacific Oceans. Our results imply snowball possible, principle, inception possibly triggered by brief dark spell.
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