Exploring vulnerability of coastal habitats to sea level rise through global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses

摘要: Changes in coastal habitats brought about by climate change have the potential to cause population decline of shoreline dependent organisms. In particular, sea level rise associated with can drastically affect wetlands and beaches which are important foraging nesting areas these SLAMM 5 (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model) is widely used simulate wetland conversion modification for purpose habitat vulnerability assessment decision making, but concerns regarding suitability model due uncertainty involved selecting many model's empirical input parameters been expressed. This paper applies a generic evaluation framework consisting state-of-the-art screening variance-based global sensitivity analyses changes barrier island Eglin Air Force Base, Florida order to: (1) identify factors processes that control 5's output uncertainty; (2) quantify apportion it direct contributions interactions factors; (3) evaluate this new methodology explore fate study area. Results showed four (DEM vertical error lower elevation range, historic trend rise, accretion, sedimentation rates) controlled 88-91% variance predicting beach Base. The most dominant governing coastline area were inundation (i.e. reduction rise) accretion/sedimentation. Interestingly, (salt marsh, tidal flat, beach), results possible gain or loss depending on relative strength resulting from combination within their proposed ranges. Higher-elevation (swamps inland fresh marsh) decrease over 100 years simulation. These findings implement managerial schemes protect threatened Plover birds (Charadrius sp.) communities. model-independent be wide range environmental models.