Overlooked impacts of electricity expansion optimisation modelling: The life cycle side of the story

摘要: Abstract This work evaluates implications of incorporating LCA-GHG (life cycle assessment GHG emissions) into the optimisation power generation mix Brazil through 2050, under baseline and low-carbon scenarios. Furthermore, this assesses impacts enacting a tax on emissions as strategy to mitigate climate change. To end, model that integrates regional life data with optimised energy scenarios was developed using MESSAGE-Brazil integrated model. Following trend, sector in would increasingly rely conventional coal technologies. from 2050 are expected increase 15-fold. When direct-carbon emissions, advanced onshore wind technologies become competitive. peak at 2025 decrease afterwards, reaching an emission level 40% lower than 2010. However, if were evaluated entire supply systems, be 50% higher is due loads associated construction plant infrastructures extraction processing fossil fuel resources. Thus, taxes might not effective tackling shown by past studies, they only applied direct emissions.