Where Giant Earthquakes May Come

摘要: Giant earthquakes (Mw≥8.5) usually occur on the boundary between subducting and overriding plates of converging margins, but it is not yet clear which (if any) subduction zones are more prone to produce such a kind events. Here we show that may have different capabilities giant earthquakes. We analyze frequency-magnitude distribution interplate at occurred during 1976–2007 calculate propensity (defined as average annual rate) events for about half zones. find b value significantly among zones, out-of-sample (before 1976 after 2007) preferentially in high-propensity areas. Besides importance seismic hazard assessment risk mitigation, our results seem indicate higher seismicity rate does necessarily imply likelihood generate earthquakes, way stress released interface change occurrence