Assessing Climate Impacts on the Energy Sector with TIAM-WORLD: Focus on Heating and Cooling and Hydropower Potential

摘要: Much research is still needed to understand the climate vulnerability of energy sector and identify cost-effective adaptation options. This chapter explores coupling World TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-WORLD) with an emulated version model PLASIM-ENTS assess impacts future temperature precipitation changes on heating cooling subsector available hydropower. An absence feedback induced by system needs was found for a 1.6–5.7 °C range long-term global mean increase: when aggregated at level, some compensate others, represent relatively small contributor total consumption. However, significant are observed regional level in terms additional power capacity, mostly coal plants, satisfy needs. Reduced affect gas systems more than biomass electric heaters, reflecting higher costs these options longer term. Available hydropower estimated increase seasonal basis most regions under change. It could therefore contribute supply electricity where both potential expected increase. Hydropower results however characterized high uncertainty due uncertainties projected as well coarse resolution PLASIM-ENTS.