Global long-term greenhouse gas mitigation emission scenarios based on AIM

摘要: In order to respond climate change, it is essential describe possible future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trajectories in both nonintervention and intervention terms. This paper analyzes long-term GHG mitigation scenarios according alternative development paths the world major regions, based on quantified by Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). AIM revised applied quantification of narrative storylines for socioeconomic development, emissions from energy use, land-use industrial production processes are simulated. A wide range policies adopted this simulation as responses change. Several target stabilized levels—650, 550 450ppmv—are analyzed. The results show that achieve stabilization at a different concentration level, policy package reach rather than single policy. Energy efficiency improvement will be key contributor reduction result package. cost could medium without large loss economic growth. developing significantly reduce compared with nonmitigation sufficient knowledge transfer developed countries.