The decline in stomach cancer mortality: exploration of future trends in seven European countries

摘要: Mortality from stomach cancer has fallen steadily during the past decades. The aim of this paper is to assess implication a possible continuation decline in mortality until year 2030. Annual rates 1980 2005 were determined for Netherlands, United Kingdom, France, and four Nordic countries on basis regression analysis. extrapolated 2030, assuming same rate as past, using three scenarios. absolute numbers deaths projected taking into account data ageing national populations. Stomach declined between at about (3.6–4.9% per year) both men women all countries. did not level off recent years, it was smaller with lower overall 1980. If continue future, would 66% 2030 most populations, while number diminish by 50%. Thus, view strong, stable consistent declines decades, despite population ageing, likely become far less important cause death Europe future.