Empirically Calibrated Model of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the United States

摘要: This study presents a comprehensive epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. Through empirical calibration parameter values, objectives were to gain insights into uncertain aspects natural history and improve basis for projecting future course epidemic. A systematic review published literature was conducted define plausible ranges around parameters, multiple simulations undertaken using sampled values from these ranges. Model predictions produced by each set compared with available data on infection prevalence mortality liver cancer, various goodness-of-fit criteria used identify range that consistent data. The results indicate rates progression advanced disease may be lower than previously assumed. authors also found wide assumptions about heterogeneity rates, beyond explained age sex, is observed trends. These findings have important implications both individual clinical decisions broader public health policy.