Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change

摘要: Abstract Many decisions concerning long-lived investments already need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due the rate of change, new infrastructure will have be able cope with a large range changing conditions, which make design more difficult and construction expensive. Second, uncertainty in future makes it impossible directly use output single model as an input design, there are good reasons think that needed information available soon. Instead optimizing based on conditions projected by models, therefore, should made robust possible changes conditions. This aim implies users must also change their practices decision-making frameworks, instance adapting uncertainty-management methods they currently apply exchange rates or RD (ii) favouring reversible flexible options; (iii) buying “safety margins” investments; (iv) promoting soft adaptation strategies, including long-term prospective; (v) reducing decision time horizons. Moreover, essential consider both negative positive side-effects externalities measures. Adaptation–mitigation interactions call integrated assessment mitigation policies, often developed distinct communities.