Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change

摘要: Robert J. LempertRAND1700 Main St.Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138Michael E. SchlesingerDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University ofIllinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801People are two minds about uncertainty. On the one hand we crave predictionsabout future. Virtually every newspaper, magazine, and trade publication has articlespredicting some aspect future many people make good livings foretelling whatthe will bring. The quest for prediction probably fills deep human need. Eventhough accuracy most predictions proven to be poor (Sherden 1998), futurebecomes less scary once given a name shape.On other usually recognize that inherently unreliableand have been extraordinarily creative in managing our affairs without them. From thefolkways farmers, basic tenets religions, rules thumb use tonavigate late-20th century life, few provide designed help theindividual achieve measure success fulfillment no matter what futurebrings. currently triumphant forms social organization, democracy freemarket, both explicitly self-correcting errors robust againstunforeseen circumstances. Both assume cannot predict makemistakes. owe much their truth this view.In recent years researchers examining alternative policies address threat ofclimate change become increasingly concerned This is clearlyappropriate, policy problems dependent on such significant unknowns.Ascertaining potential impacts activities immensely complex climatesystem its related ecosystems daunting enough. But climate-change mustalso concern itself with state society fifty hundred hence. Willinnovation drive cost non-emitting energy technologies below fossil fuels?Will new means extraction processing coal low-cost fuel future?Will treasure preservation present nature or descendants