Decision Making Under Uncertainty: A New Paradigm for Water Resources Planning and Management
作者： Patricia Gober
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-62703-595-8_8
关键词: Strategic human resource planning 、 Climate model 、 Environmental planning 、 Robust decision-making 、 Business 、 Climate change 、 Adaptation (computer science) 、 Water resources 、 Environmental resource management 、 Corporate governance 、 Scenario planning
摘要: Climate change challenges water managers to make decisions about future infrastructure and the adequacy of current supplies before uncertainties climate models their hydrological impacts are resolved. Water thus face classic problem decision making under uncertainty (DMUU). The aim DMUU is not be paralyzed by uncertainty, but highlight use it better manage risk. Strategies for include scenario planning, exploratory simulation modeling, robust making, anticipatory planning governance. These tools imply a new role social scientists in fields science engineering relationship between practitioner community. Examples drawn from Phoenix, Arizona, US Southwest support strategies science-policy engagement. Simulation experiments Phoenix reveal challenging, feasible, adaptation sector all most dire conditions.
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