Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative Long-Term Policy Analysis
作者： Robert Lempert , Steven Popper , Steven Bankes
DOI: 10.7249/MR1626
关键词:
摘要: The checkered history of predicting the future — e.g., “Man will never fly” has dissuaded policymakers from considering long-term effects decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about future. authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers examine vast range futures and design adaptive strategies be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, discuss how these apply LTPA wide decisionmaking under conditions deep uncertainty.
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