Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty

摘要: While optimality is a foundational mathematical concept in water resources planning and management, “optimal” solutions may be vulnerable to failure if deeply uncertain future conditions deviate from those assumed during optimization. These vulnerabilities produce severely asymmetric impacts across region, making it vital evaluate the robustness of management strategies as well their for regional stakeholders. In this study, we contribute multistakeholder many-objective robust decision (MORDM) framework that blends search uncertainty analysis tools discover key tradeoffs between supply alternatives deep uncertainties (e.g., population pressures, climate change, financial risks). The proposed demonstrated four interconnected utilities representing major stakeholders “Research Triangle” region North Carolina, U.S. over one million customers have ability collectively manage drought via transfer agreements shared infrastructure. We show portfolios compose optimal (i.e., Pareto-approximate solutions) under expected suffer significantly degraded performance with only modest changes hydrologic economic factors. then use Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) identify which factors drive individual collective cooperating utilities. Our identifies stakeholder dependencies associated cooperative planning, are critical understanding tensions versus goals. Cooperative demand was found factor controlling dominating other hydroclimatic through 2025 horizon. Results suggest reduction projected rate growth (from approximately 3% per year 2.4%) will substantially improve utilities' reduce potential tensions. MORDM offers insights into risks challenges posed by rising demands hydrological uncertainties, providing template regions now forced confront rapidly evolving scarcity risks.