Exploring the impact of renewables on supply-demand balance: a probabilistic model

摘要: This paper aims at proposing a probabilistic methodology for exploring the impact on supply-demand balance of integration growing part renewables (wind, solar) in an energy mix initially composed conventional (nuclear, thermal, hydro) power generation technologies. We propose stochastic optimization approach consisting maximizing probability to satisfy balance, modelled as system bilateral random inequalities. Preliminary results obtained with this are reported and discussed simple case where neither storage systems nor optimized management ftexibilities considered. The setting up annual quotas CO2 emissions context is also analyzed.