Modelling the range expansion of the Tiger mosquito in a Mediterranean Island accounting for imperfect detection

摘要: Aedes albopictus (Diptera; Culicidae) is a highly invasive mosquito species and competent vector of several arboviral diseases that have spread rapidly throughout the world. Prevalence patterns dispersal are central importance for an effective control species. We used site-occupancy models accounting false negative detections to estimate prevalence, turnover, movement pattern growth rate in number sites occupied by 17 localities Mallorca Island. Site-occupancy probability increased from 0.35 2012, year first reported observation species, 0.89 2015. Despite steady increase presence, extinction was generally high indicating turnover sites. considered two site-dependent covariates, namely distance point estimated yearly occupancy neighborhood, as predicted diffusion models. Results suggested distribution during consistent with what simple models, but not model subsequent years when it similar those expected leapfrog events. Assuming single initial colonization event, Ae. followed distinct phases, early one movements second long distance, ‘leapfrog’, movements. The island fast, ~90% be 3 after colonization. fast likely occurred through vectors related human mobility such cars or other vehicles. Surveillance management actions near introduction would only steps