Weather Variability Associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue Vector) Oviposition Dynamics in Northwestern Argentina

摘要: This study aims to develop a forecasting model by assessing the weather variability associated with seasonal fluctuation of Aedes aegypti oviposition dynamic at city level in Oran, northwestern Argentina. Oviposition dynamics were assessed weekly monitoring 90 ovitraps urban area during 2005-2007. Correlations performed between number eggs collected and variables (rainfall, photoperiod, vapor pressure water, temperature, relative humidity) without time lags (1 6 weeks). A stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was set meteorological from first year that best correlated oviposition. Model validation conducted using data second (October 2006- 2007). Minimum temperature rainfall most important variables. No found temperatures below 10°C. The significant 3 weeks for minimum rains, water pressure, maximum temperature. could be expected Oran three after rains adequate min temperatures. best-fit combined explained 70 % variance (adj. R2). correlation Ae. observed estimated resulted rs = 0.80 (P < 0.05). developed would allow prediction increases decreases activity based on and, according variables, vector can predicted or four advance.