Climatic variability and dengue risk in urban environment of Delhi (India)

摘要: Abstract The paper determines climate variability in Delhi represented by changes weather pattern and makes an empirical assessment of their impact on dengue incidence identifying the ‘high risk’ weeks a year. Statistical technique iterative chi-square which compares daily data climatic elements for each during recent years (1999–2011) previous (1973–1998) selected this study has been used determining year there have change maximum minimum temperatures, rainfall relative humidity. Association established modelling longitudinal (panel) weekly incidence, recorded January 2008 to May 2013 using most suited Poisson regression applying generalized estimating equation approach. Findings reveal significant across having positive association with cases at specified lags. Weeks April July October gaps identified as high risk based estimated risk. There intra-annual expansion period extending beyond monsoon post-monsoon. outcome contributes framing future adaptation strategies.