International burden sharing in greenhouse gas reduction

摘要: This report provides an overview of current and historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; examines alternative formulations on how efforts to lower anthropogenic GHG emissions could be shared among regions/countries; evaluates quantitatively the implications allocation/reduction criteria, particularly from a "North-South" perspective; describes combined emission data base software tool developed for analysis allocation regimes: Parametric Framework. The Framework (in Lotus format) contains set comprising 13 world regions/countries, socio-economic background data, three different types gases/sources: fossil fuel industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, CO2 biota land-use changes, methane (CH4) emissions. Historical span period 1800 1988 CO2, 1950 CH4. In addition, numerical routines necessary calculate quantitative four criteria (and their variants) are included. The enables easy straightforward changes control targets, other salient parameters importance in accounting (e.g., global warming potential equivalences between GHGs). Four reduction analyzed: equal per capita percentage cuts desired target levels ("grandfathering"), cutbacks proportional past contributions atmospheric concentration increase regional basis (compensation "natural debt"), natural sinks adjusted reduction. An was made regions, assuming 4 Gt C (C-equivalent) by year 2050. Additional sensitivity analyses were performed each criteria. most important findings include following: (1) There two generic classes criteria: distributive -- rights, reductive requirements. largest differences allocations obtained these classes, especially when based basis. (2) Differences smaller within classes. For example, across board ("grandfathering") contribution achieve quite similar future allocations: (3) basic principle is also more than inclusion GHGs (comprehensiveness). (4) smallest variations distribution resulted altering reference compared which ought achieved.