A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability

摘要: The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) in-house model (Seamless Coupled Prediction System: SCoPS) has been newly developed for operational seasonal forecasting. SCoPS generated ensemble retrospective forecasts the period 1982–2013 and real-time 2014–current. In this study, prediction skill of hindcast was validated compared to those previous operation (APEC Community System Model version 3: APCC CCSM3). This study spatial temporal skills climatology, large-scale features, climate variability from both systems. A special focus fidelity systems reproduce forecast phenomena that are closely related East Asian monsoon system. Overall, CCSM3 exhibit realistic representations basic climate, although systematic biases found surface temperature precipitation. averaged anomaly correlation coefficient sea temperature, 2-m precipitation is higher than CCSM3. Notably, well captures northward migrated rainband summer monsoon. simulation also shows useful in predicting wintertime Arctic Oscillation. Consequently, more skillful variability, including ENSO Further, it clear with will be simulating