Hot temperatures during the dry season reduce survival of a resident tropical bird.

摘要: Understanding how climate change will shape species distributions in the future requires a functional understanding of demographic responses animals to their environment. For birds, most our knowledge influences population vital rates stems from research temperate environments, even though Earth's avian diversity is concentrated tropics. We evaluated effects Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and local temperature rainfall at multiple temporal scales on sex-specific survival resident tropical bird, rufous-and-white wren Thryophilus rufalbus, studied over 15 years dry forests northwestern Costa Rica. found that annual apparent males was 8% higher than females, more variable time, responded strongly environmental variation female survival, which did not vary with SOI or weather. males, mean maximum temperatures were better predictors either SOI, high during season early wet negatively influencing survival. These results suggest that, for adapted hot further increases may threaten persistence populations absence distributional shifts.