Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk—eastern Australia
作者： Danielle C. Verdon , Anthony S. Kiem , Stewart W. Franks
DOI: 10.1071/WF03034
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摘要: This study investigates the influence that El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Inter-decadal Pacific (IPO) have on long term daily weather conditions pertinent to high forest fire danger in New South Wales, Australia. Using historical meteorological data for 22 stations compute value of McArthur’s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), it is shown a strong relationship exists between climate variability, range time scales, risk. An investigation into ENSO risk demonstrates proportion days with high, or greater than rating markedly increased during Nino episodes. More importantly, this also shows already significantly enhanced associated events was even further occurred when IPO negative. The potential use simple indices variability predict therefore demonstrated be significant.
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