Uncertainty in the deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): A sensitivity analysis to techno-economic parameter uncertainty

摘要: Abstract Projections of the deployment Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies vary considerably. Cumulative emission reductions by CCS until 2100 in majority projections IPCC-TAR scenarios from 220 to 2200 GtCO2. This variation is a result uncertainty key determinants baselines different models, such as, technological development (IPCC Special Report on Dioxide Storage. Prepared Working Group III Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom New York). Technological parameters are power plant efficiency investment cost, capture transport cost storage capacity. study provides insights how uncertain this influences projections. For each parameter, ranges determined basis existing literature. systematically assessed for all these parameter global energy system model (TIMER). The results show that causes largest range cumulative CO2 captured electricity production (13–176 GtCO2 2050) scenario with medium fossil fuel price level. smallest, but still significant 65–91 GtCO2 cumulatively 2050, caused unit.