Optimization of economic policies and investment projects using a fuzzy logic based cost-effectiveness model of coral reef quality: empirical results for Montego Bay, Jamaica

摘要: For effective mitigation of human impacts, quantitative models are required that facilitate a comprehensive analysis the effects activity on reefs. Fuzzy logic procedures generate complex dose-response surface relationships among coral abundance and various inputs (e.g., physical damage, sedimentation, nutrient influx), within context abiotic marine environment. This is linked to nonlinear economic structure incorporating technical interventions pollution treatment) policy taxation) in eight sectors. Optimization provides insights into most cost-effective means for protecting reefs under different reef quality targets. The research demonstrates that: (1) it feasible use fuzzy model interactions ecosystems; and, (2) conventional modeling cost-effectiveness can result sub-optimal choices when applied systems such as In Montego Bay, Jamaica, up 20% increase may be achievable through using appropriate measures having present value cost US$153 million over 25 years; 10% at US$12 million.