The recovery of the otter in the Cevennes (France): a GIS-based model

摘要: The Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) is an elusive semi-aquatic mammal. Its absence difficult to prove and censuses can be biased by false-negative observations. A model proposed correct this bias predicting occurrence probabilities where observations are negative. In case of signs observation in one place, the probability find species another place assumed decrease if distance between both places increases. This approach tested on a 15-years survey dataset (4,592 data) from National Cevennes Park (3,200 km2, France). Four methods compared, using Euclidian distances, decisional cost-weighted distances basin analyses. validation performed 61 stretches that were prospected each year Cevennes. For these stretches, negative during but positive previous following year, compared predictions given modelling method. proves interest describing landscape defining spatially weighted present predict its search unsuccessful. results highlight that, despite high mobility otter, distribution limited some watershed limits. Hydrographical basins represent relevant spatial unit analyse recovery.