Are climate models credible worlds? Prospects and limitations of possibilistic climate prediction

摘要: Climate models don’t give us probabilistic forecasts. To interpret their results, alternatively, as serious possibilities seems problematic inasmuch climate rely on contrary-to-fact assumptions: why should we consider implications possible if assumptions are known to be false? The paper explores a way address this possibilistic challenge. It introduces the concepts of perfect and an imperfect credible world, discusses whether can interpreted worlds. That would allow one use for prediction salvage widespread scientific practice.