Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

摘要: A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse climatically vulnerable region Pakistan (20°–37° N 60°–78° E), for the first time, baseline period (1975–1999), as well three projected periods during twenty-first century centered at 2025–2049, 2050–2074, 2075–2099, respectively, both seasonal annual bases, under Special Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that winter season (from December to March), 66% display robust increase precipitation by about 10% relative period, irrespective emission scenario projection in upper northern subregion (latitude > 35° N). The changes temperature end are range 3 4 ° C an basis, central western regions Punjab province, especially A2 A1B scenarios. In particular, AR4 project a progressive throughout Pakistan, contrast spatial distribution precipitation, where spatially less uniform results obtained sign change. general, larger summer (JAS) compared coming decades, period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies adapt mitigate climate change comparison what currently envisaged.