Risk Analysis: Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities

摘要: Preface. Part I: Theory and methods. 1 What is a risk analysis? 1.1 Why analysis?. 1.2 Risk management. 1.2.1 Decision-making under uncertainty. 1.3 Examples: decision situations. 1.3.1 analysis for tunnel. 1.3.2 an offshore installation. 1.3.3 related to cash depot. 2 risk? 2.1 Vulnerability. 2.2 How describe quantitatively. 2.2.1 Description of in financial context. 2.2.2 safety 3 The process: planning. 3.1 Problem definition. 3.2 Selection method. 3.2.1 Checklist-based approach. 3.2.2 Risk-based 4 assessment. 4.1 Identification initiating events. 4.2 Cause analysis. 4.3 Consequence 4.4 Probabilities uncertainties. 4.5 picture: presentation. 4.5.1 Sensitivity robustness analyses. 4.5.2 evaluation. 5 treatment. 5.1 Comparisons alternatives. 5.1.1 assess measures? 5.2 Management review judgement. 6 6.1 Coarse 6.2 Job 6.3 Failure modes effects 6.3.1 Strengths weaknesses FMEA. 6.4 Hazard operability studies. 6.5 SWIFT. 6.6 Fault tree 6.6.1 Qualitative 6.6.2 Quantitative 6.7 Event 6.7.1 Barrier block diagrams. 6.8 Bayesian networks. 6.9 Monte Carlo simulation. II Examples applications. 7 Safety measures road 7.1 Planning. 7.1.1 7.1.2 7.2 7.2.1 7.2.2 7.2.3 7.2.4 picture. 7.3 7.3.1 Comparison 7.3.2 decision. 8 process 8.1 8.1.1 8.1.2 8.2 8.2.1 identification. 8.2.2 8.2.3 8.3 picture comparison 8.4 9 Production assurance. 9.1 9.2 9.2.1 failures. 9.2.2 9.2.3 9.3 9.4 Decision. 10 10.1 10.1.1 10.1.2 10.2 10.2.1 hazards threats. 10.2.2 10.2.3 10.3 10.4 Risk-reducing measures. 10.4.1 Relocation the NOKAS facility. 10.4.2 Erection wall. 10.5 judgment. 10.6 Discussion. 11 municipalities. 11.1 Planning . 11.1.1 11.1.2 11.2 11.2.1 threat 11.2.2 consequence 11.3 12 entire enterprise. 12.1 12.1.1 12.1.2 12.2 12.2.1 Price risk. 12.2.2 Operational 12.2.3 Health, Environment (HES). 12.2.4 Reputation 12.3 Overall 12.4 13 13.1 as support tool. 13.2 more than calculated probabilities expected values. 13.3 has both strengths weaknesses. 13.3.1 Precision analysis: uncertainty sensitivity 13.3.2 Terminology. 13.3.3 acceptance criteria (tolerability limits). 13.4 Reflection on approaches, methods results. 13.5 Limitations causal chain 13.6 perspectives. 13.7 Scientific basis. 13.8 implications limitations 13.9 Critical systems activities. 13.10 Conclusions. A Probability calculus statistics. A.1 meaning probability. A.2 calculus. A.3 distributions: value. A.3.1 Binomial distribution. A.4 Statistics (Bayesian statistics). B Introduction reliability B.1 Reliability composed components. B.2 system. B.3 C Approach selecting C.1 Expected consequences. C.2 Uncertainty factors. C.3 Frame conditions. C.4 specific D D.1 management: relationships between key terms. Bibliography. Index.