INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE ON BUSINESS CYCLE MAGNITUDE DEPENDENCE: AN ANALYSIS OF 16 INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, 1881 - 2000

摘要: Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models investigate issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 2000. For the total find evidence positive dependence for recessions, while are not able reject null independence. This last result is due structural change mechanism guiding before after second World War. particular, upturns show negative post-World War II sub sample, meaning that period become less increases.