Will US fertility remain low? a new economic interpretation.

摘要: A method for partitioning the total fertility rate in United States into 2 period components is developed. 1 component reflects timing other measures average completed of women currently their childbearing years. Estimates expectations derived from an economic model are reported. The and estimates used to analyze 1920 1975. By comparing with published data on lifetime births expected extent which these very different processes generate same thing can be evaluated. evidence suggests that virtually all baby bust has been reflected a corresponding fertility. Expected did level off between 1972 1975 probably remained since but resulting gap dwarfed by 20-year decline. theoretical suggested implies following: 1) annual movements rates will continue dominated considerations; 2) countercyclical as couples seek compress relatively low-cost periods when economy sluggish; 3) rising (falling) wages job opportunities induce declining (increasing) expectations; 4) continued secular expansion womens (if it occurs) declines until positive asymptote reached following fluctuate countercyclincally.