Policy modelling for climate change: The missing models

摘要: Abstract Many models have been applied to climate policy analysis, with disparate and often contradictory results. Attempts compare costs of abatement against the expected environmental benefits are crippled by fundamental uncertainties. Expected unquantifiable at present because inadequate understanding both system, likely societal responses change. Much knowledge required for estimating over a 10–20 year period now exists, but only in discrete components involving many separate dedicated modelling studies. The most important uncertain long-term factor is technology development. central challenge reflect these factors, impacts, which capture uncertainties inertia climatic energy systems. At stage modelling, expert judgment better guide than any particular model result. Models related sensitivity studies are, however, already an source influencing such judgments, they rapidly improving.