Modelling regional futures at decadal scale: application to the Kimberley region

摘要: We address the question of how to provide meaningful scientific information support environmental decision making at regional scale and temporal several decades in a network marine parks Kimberley region Western Australia. Where sustainability is affected by slow-dynamics climate change processes one-off investments large infrastructure which can affect for come, both strategic reactive planning necessary prediction becomes as urgent standard adaptive management. At interface between future studies, socio-economic modelling modelling, we define 18 scenarios economic development impacts five management strategies. explore these potential futures using coupled models terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. obtain projection system year 2050, conditional on chosen Our results suggest that change, not development, largest factor affecting ecosystems region, with site-attached species such reef fish greatest risk. These same also benefit most from more stringent strategies, especially expansion sanctuary zones Marine Protected Areas.