Modeling Greenhouse Gas Reduction From the Australian Electricity Sector

摘要: The Australian electricity sector is expected to undergo major changes reduce the current sectoral CO2 emission of 190 million tons 96 by 2050. This paper summarizes two modeling studies that have been undertaken since 2006 understand full set investment, price and financial impact on existing generators, especially coal-based generators. We used a long-term capacity dispatch optimization model comprehensively analyze both least-cost market-led expansion system accommodate alternative reduction targets from shallow cut deep cut. results demonstrate cost meeting target can be over $30 billion in NPV terms. A mix clean coal technologies, gas nuclear technologies displace stock conventional which varies significantly depending target. analysis also show mandatory renewable or technology standards are inefficient policies comparison market-based policy such as proposed emissions trading scheme.