The Single Greatest Threat: The United States and Global Climate Disruption

摘要: Climate change--or better, climate disruption--is the single greatest threat that societies face today. [ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] In 1979, administration of US President Jimmy Carter asked National Academy Sciences (NAS) to assess scientific basis for concern about man-made change. Massachusetts Institute Technology scientist Jule Charney led NAS review. The chair NAS's Research Board summarized findings Report: "If carbon dioxide continues increase, study group finds no reason doubt changes will result and believe these be negligible.... A wait-and-see policy may mean waiting until it is too late." Since early beginnings, efforts forecast change influence with results have become a huge international enterprise. Intergovernmental Panel on Change has been at center activity, many federal agencies, NAS, innumerable academic institutions research centers deeply involved. effort last yielding some significant, if seriously belated, responses. With Russia's ratification, Kyoto Protocol entered into force. European governments, both individually through Union, are taking more significant action. government British Prime Minister Tony Blair, example, remarkably committed 60 percent reduction in United Kingdom's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, developed plan action meet this target, estimates costs would "very small--equivalent 2050 just small fraction (0.5 2 percent) nation's wealth, as measured gross domestic product (GDP), which then tripled." Such developments Europe encouraging, major corporations fair portion states also steps. These contributing growing momentum offers hope halt But an honest assessment reveals that, general, public opinion disappointingly ineffectual. Situation Today community provided credible forecasts serious warnings better part three decades. Nonetheless, buildup GHG atmosphere proceeded apace, begun earnest, even optimistic projections grimly trends worsen. One most comprehensive studies ever regional impact Arctic Impact Assessment. report makes disturbing reading: warming much rapidly than previously known, nearly twice rate rest globe, increasing GHGs from human activities likely make warmer still. Alaska, Western Canada, Eastern Russia, average winter temperatures increased 3 4[degrees]C past 50 years projected rise 4 7[degrees]C over next 100 years. Warming Greenland could melt Ice Sheet, global sea-level rates. Over long term, contains enough water eventually raise sea level 23 feet. clear affect far away region level, adding positive feedback accelerates disrupting ocean currents, including Gulf Stream. Looking ahead, among widely accepted future fossil fuel use those International Energy Agency. Its 2004 "reference scenario," business-as-usual projection, total world climbing 62 2030--several times tolerable protection. Information Administration similar scenario States. …