Modeling black bear population dynamics in a human-dominated stochastic environment

摘要: a b s t r c Many large carnivore populations exist in human-influenced stochastic environments where availabil- ity of natural food sources vary annually and anthropogenic can supplement energetic demands, but at potential demographic cost due to human-wildlife conflict subsequent management. Understanding how these competing factors influence population is complex dif- ficult study, here we demonstrate the utility using projection matrix model perturbation analysis gain insight into this problem. We modeled black bear subjected failures fruiting masting species, with access garbage urban environments. parameratized our data from 6-year study on bears Aspen, Colorado synthesized other research studies. Using computer simulation, investigated effect that ferent levels conflict-bear removal have by comparing "reference" scenario did not benefit human or experience removals two scenarios had varying foods, were removed. used analyses evaluate consequences for changing vital rates estimate impact each rate change growth. Simulations identify much variation influenced growth rate. identified survival breeding adult females during good years as having highest elasticity value. found increased cub production available failure was quickly negated if management through reduced female survival. Increasing frequency when fails resulted dis- proportionate impacts removals, High Removal declined 1.5 times faster than reference scenario. Our findings suggest regions climates will increase failures, man- agers may need utilize non-lethal practices managing municipalities secure reduce declines.